How Much Food to Prep for an Event

Step 1 — Forecast paid orders

Paid orders ≈ attendance × capture rate. Use 4–6% for crowded festivals with 30+ food vendors, 6–8% for medium-density events, and 8–10% for low-competition events like a brewery night.

Step 2 — Add a buffer

For unknown events, prep 1.2–1.3× your forecast. For repeat events with two years of sales history, drop to 1.05–1.1×. The buffer eats waste; under-prep eats reputation.

Step 3 — Convert orders into portions

A "portion" is the unit your menu's slowest-to-thaw or slowest-to-cook item consumes. For a barbecue truck, that's typically protein by ounce. For a taco truck, it's tortillas + protein. Translate each menu item's mix percentage into its portion units, then sum across the menu.

Step 4 — Weather adjust

• Forecast over 92°F: capture drops 10–20% on heavy items, rises on light items.
• Forecast under 50°F: capture rises on warm/comfort items, drops on cold items.
• Rain forecast: cut attendance forecast 30–50% before applying capture.

Step 5 — Plan reload points

For multi-day events, prep day one fully and day two to 70% with a planned restock from commissary the night between. For single-day events, identify the 60-minute window where you'd run out at forecast pace and stage extra prep ahead of it.

What to do mid-service if prep is going fast

• Pull slow-prep items off the menu board before they're depleted.
• Promote sides/drinks to recover ticket size on a contracted menu.
• Communicate sold-outs honestly — surprise stockouts ruin reviews.

Tracking actuals

Log final portions served vs. prep target per event. Over 5–10 events you'll see your truck's true capture rate per event type, which sharpens every forecast going forward.

FRUCKOS builds this prep target into every event plan and learns from your actuals to tune the next forecast.